Egypt: MB Warns of Confrontation if Shafik wins

Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat- Dr. Mahmoud Ghuzlan, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s spokesman, has warned of what he calls a “dangerous” confrontation between the people and the army if Major General Ahmed Shafik is declared the winner of Egypt’s presidential election, the result of which is due to be officially announced in the coming hours.  Meanwhile, sources in the Revolution Coalition – Egypt have expressed their fear of being let down again by the Brotherhood if its candidate Dr. Muhammad Mursi is declared the winner, and yesterday claimed that the Brotherhood is currently negotiating with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), either over Mursi’s victory or an “escalation” against the military.

Ghuzlan said that the Brotherhood’s presidential rival Ahmed Shafik’s insistence on declaring victory in the second stage of voting, which ended last Sunday, indicates that SCAF and the  Supreme Presidential Elections Commission have bad intentions, and warned against any attempt to falsify the will of the voters.  He said:  “If Shafik is declared the winner, then this means the military have staged an obvious coup.”  He added that “tampering with the results of the ballot boxes might lead to a confrontation between the people and the army.  I hope SCAF will bow to the will of the people”.

Mursi’s campaign team unilaterally declared his victory as president by 51 percent on Monday.  Ghuzlan previously said in exclusive statements to Asharq Al-Awsat that the Guidance Bureau, which is the highest executive authority in the Brotherhood group, would discuss the scenario of Shafik being declared the winner, in violation of the election results that the Brotherhood previously documented.  However, after the Guidance Bureau meeting today, Ghuzlan added:  “In fact, we did not discuss this issue because it was not raised or possible, but it seems that something is being planned behind the scenes.”

Ghuzlan denied that the Guidance Bureau is playing any role in the consultations that Mursi, a former Bureau member, might hold to choose the team that will accompany him in the coming stage, adding “this is totally up to Dr. Mursi if he is declared victorious.”

Mahmoud Ghuzlan underlined the Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party’s rejection of the supplementary constitutional declaration, which was issued hours before the start of the vote-counting process, pointing out that SCAF does not have the authority to issue a constitutional declaration, and what has been issued so far serves to restrict the elected president’s powers.  He added that the Brotherhood also does not accept the decision to dissolve parliament, which the Constitutional Court issued last Thursday.

Ghuzlan also denied that negotiations were underway between SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood to accept the amended constitution and comply with the dissolution of the parliament, in return for Dr. Muhammad Mursi being declared the winner in the presidential election.  He said:  “Generally speaking, we as a group do not accept bargaining.  Regarding the existence of negotiations with SCAF, this is not true and has not happened.  We would not accept this if it was proposed to us.”

On the other hand, the Revolution Coalition – Egypt, which includes several political trends, held a meeting yesterday in which Brotherhood leaders took part, according to sources in attendance.  The conferees agreed to escalate their confrontation with SCAF, but it seems that the Muslim Brotherhood has backed down on the agreement, following signs that its candidate is winning.

Several coalition leaders who talked to Asharq Al-Awsat said that the Brotherhood has backed down on an agreement to escalate matters, after arrangements were made beginning with a million-strong demonstration on Tuesday outside the former headquarters of the National Democratic Party – located close to Tahrir Square – heading towards the parliament building.  It seems that the Brotherhood is merely gathering its supporters in the square to stay until Friday, awaiting the official result of the presidential election, either to celebrate or to denounce the victory.

For his part, Islam Lutfi, a leading figure in the Coalition of Revolution Youth and a former Brotherhood member, believes that “negotiations are currently underway between the Brotherhood and SCAF, with regards to the former accepting the rules set out by the council, namely complying with the decision to dissolve parliament and the amended constitution, in return for declaring Mursi’s victory and keeping the constituent assembly”.

The Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed under the reign of former President Hosni Mubarak, and observers believe it might back down from a confrontation in the street so as not to give its opponents an excuse to take new measures against it.  The Supreme Presidential Elections Commission will announce the official results of the runoff tomorrow (Thursday), while the two candidates continue to trade accusations with each of them declaring victory.

The Coalition of Revolution Youth’s leaders agree that the election demonstrates the sharp polarization that the country is suffering from.  Lutfi adds:  “It also clearly shows the role that the security apparatus plays in guiding public opinion, through a wide network of satellite channels and newspapers owned by businessmen with connections to the old regime.”

Observers believe that the problem with the recent developments is that they have consolidated the power of the military establishment. The Justice Ministry granted the military police and intelligence services special powers to arrest and detain civilians, and to try them without a judicial warrant.

While the revolution’s youths are trying to pressure the Brotherhood into adopting a hardline approach towards SCAF, the old partisan forces are still backing the military’s influence in political life, for fear of the Islamists controlling power.  According to observers, youths have been deliberately excluded from the political scene since Mubarak’s overthrow.

The Coalition of Revolution Youth believe that the announcement of Shafik’s failure in the presidential race would be a symbolic victory for them as he was Mubarak’s last prime minister.  A coalition member said:  “Shafik was clearly backed by the leaders and members of Mubarak’s party and his success would be a strong blow for the revolution’s forces.”