Where the voters stand

In any presidential or parliamentary election in a democratic state, there are precise and expressive opinion polls that can give a true indication of the reality of the candidates’ performance.

In such cases, the margin for error fluctuates between 0.5 and 1 percent; a margin deemed acceptable as we are dealing with survey operations and questionnaires.

As for the Arab world, such accurate measures are almost entirely lacking, and available only in limited cases.

Let us compare between opinion polls in the French presidential election and in Egypt.

In France, over the past six weeks until the election was held, and even up to the second round run-off, indicators continued to show a 2 percentage point lead for socialist candidate Francois Hollande over his rival Nicolas Sarkozy, and then between a 2 and 4 percentage point lead in the second round run-off.

The al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies is almost the only precise, scientific and neutral authority that could carry out periodic opinion polls to examine the public opinion trend in Egypt, regarding the presidential candidates’ performance.

The opinion poll conducted between the 28th of April and the 1st of May, which covered a sample of 1200 male and female citizens from the majority of Egyptian governorates, showed that presidential candidate Amr Musa still holds the lead with 39 percent of the vote over Dr. Aboul Fotouh with 24 percent, and then Lieutenant General Ahmed Shafiq with 17 percent.

Geographically speaking, Amr Musa’s support base is centered mainly in Upper Egypt and Alexandria, whereas Dr. Aboul Fotouh’s support lies mainly in the two governorates of Port Said and Suez, areas notorious for their endless disagreements with the authorities in the capital city. As for Lieutenant General Ahmed Shafiq, his supporters are centered mainly in the Minufiyah and Gharbia governorates, both being centers of traditional agricultural strength with a somewhat conservative inclination.

Only two candidates have made marked progress recently: Lieutenant General Ahmed Shafiq gained 6 percentage points in a single stroke, whereas the Muslim Brotherhood’s chosen candidate Mohamed Mursi also witnessed a 4 percentage point increase over the past few days.

What really matters is that these opinion polls accurately reflect the true state of affairs; otherwise the answers given would merely reflect the historical tradition in Egypt of a voter fearing to say the truth because they are intimidated by the authorities, even the authority comes in the form of a questionnaire!